The State of Things

Rasmussen's polling data for January 11, 2008 gives McCain the national edge.
GOP Candidates' National Standing:
John McCain = 22%
Mitt Romney = 20%
Mike Huckabee = 20%
Fred Thompson = 11%
Rudy Giuliani = 9%
Ron Paul = 3%

NEEDS
Michigan is the first big test for these guys. Both McCain and Romney desperately need Michigan. If McCain loses Michigan he is seriously hurt; if Romney loses Michigan, he is finished. Before New Hampshire, Huckabee was showing strength in the Michigan polls. Now I'm sure McCain and Huckabee and Romney will be battling for the top spots.

Thompson needs a strong showing in South Carolina. Just like Mitt in Michigan, Fred has gone in all-or-nothing in SC. Losing it will devastate his campaign. I think even coming in second will not be enough to salvage his campaign. His bottom line is money. I'm doubtful that with a first place win in South Carolina that Thompson could compete nationally, which is what Super Tuesday is all about.

Giuliani needs to stop getting 5th or 6th and prove that he has some support somewhere besides New York, New Jersey and Florida. Third in Michigan will be his only real way to stay competitive come Florida and Super Tuesday. The thing so many people are beginning to realize about Giuliani is the fact that he wasn't running on much more than name recognition. Many poll-watcher Republicans would support him begrudgingly if he was the easy frontrunner, but with a split race and more options, Republicans are deciding anyone but Giuliani. If he does not get third in Michigan (which will lead to him not getting first in Florida) he will drop out after Super Tuesday.

Ron Paul needs to show some competitive edge in Michigan and South Carolina. Fifth is not enough! Beating Giuliani was good in Iowa, but it only showed that he was less of a longshot than they had originally thought. Many still see him as an extreme longshot. The smart thing about Ron Paul's campaign is that he is running a national campaign. He understands the importance of Super Tuesday and is in a better place financially to compete on Super Tuesday if some candidates drop out before February 5. Thompson and Romney are primed to do it. Hopefully they will. Plus, Paul really needs to win a state or come in a strong second or third. Nevada is a good state for Paul to take and coming in strong in South Carolina or Michigan could change the entire national perception of his "electability."

POSSIBLE SPOILERS (or unintended consequences)
A possible unique facet of the Michigan GOP race is the fact that the Democrats have no delegates to award. Obama, Edwards and (pre-drop out) Richardson had their names removed from the Democratic primary ballot. And they say voting third party is wasting your vote! Anyone who votes in the Democratic primary is literally wasting their vote because it will hold no sway in the awarding of delegates which is what the primaries are all about. As a result, many Democrats in Michigan will not vote. A few will go out and vote a vote of confidence for their candidate (expect Kucinich to do the best he's ever done); others will not have gotten the memo and go out and vote anyway. Hillary will win Michigan but it won't mean anything.

What I am hopeful will happen is that many Democrats will come out and vote as Republicans. This could result in a sabotage (or slight sabotage) of the GOP primary by Democrats voting for a candidate that they either can agree with on a few key issues (Ron Paul) or voting for a candidate they believe they can beat in a general election (Huckabee) or voting for a longshot Republican to shake up the race a lot more (Hunter). I would say that the candidates who have the most to lose by Democratic GOP voting will be Romney, McCain and Thompson. McCain could be a tossup.

Democratic voting in the GOP race may not happen or not have any noticeable effect at all. And it may happen on such a broad scale that it just adds a fairly even number of votes across the span of GOP candidates. I'm sure many Kucinich voters will still head out to show their support for the underdog. Judging from voter turnout to past Democratic Primaries, I don't know that Michigan Democrats are motivated to get out and vote to sabotage the Republican Primary, if at all. That's why this will remain as speculation on my part until I see that there are a great deal more than 1,250,000 voters who turn out for the GOP Primary.