Wyoming GOP Caucus

There are 12 delegates at stake in Wyoming today for the Republican presidential candidates.  Wyoming originally had 28 delegates but because of the push to move Wyoming's caucus date forward (before February 5) the state has been penalized and lost half of their delegates.  The remaining 2 delegates were already chosen at a party convention back in May.

The press is speaking occasionally about Wyoming but not much.  It has a very confusing and convoluted caucus system.  Back in mid-December, caucuses were held to determine the delegates who would then caucus today (January 5) to determine the delegates who shall cast their votes for GOP candidates at the convention.  I think.  To further cloud matters, some delegates are "true delegates" and some are alternate delegates.  I am not sure if an alternate holds less sway or voting power than a delegate.

Every indication I have seen -- the GOP straw polls, organized campaigns in the state -- it looks like a pretty easy win for Mitt Romney.  He has strong support, especially in Teton County and in Mormon communities in the state.  He has an organized campaign in the state and has had supporters showing up to caucus.  However, there is also a strong movement of Ron Paul supporters in the state.  It seems to be a matter of who participated in the caucuses back in December which will help color who is selected as a delegate today.

Seeing as Romney has already garnered 5 delegates and Hunter 1 (meaning half of the counties are accounted for), my Predictions may be instantly outdated before I even post this online.  I still think Paul and Thompson will find some support.

My Wyoming GOP Predictions:

Mitt Romney - 6 Delegates (50 %)

Ron Paul - 3 Delegates (25 %)

Fred Thompson - 2 Delegates (16.5 %)

Duncan Hunter - 1 Delegate (8.5 %)

If Ron Paul does not get any delegates in Wyoming it wouldn't be the end of the world for his campaign.  But, if Huckabee somehow could garner more support than Ron Paul, there could be trouble.  The West is where Ron Paul's numbers are the strongest and Huckabee's are the weakest.  If the tide changes, there will be a good deal of ground for the Paul campaign to make up.

For more information: Wyoming GOP